Author(s): L. Collet; L. Beevers; C. Prudhomme
Linked Author(s): Lindsay Beevers
Keywords: No keywords
Abstract: Climate projections are predicted to result in the increase of UK properties at risk from flooding. It thus becomes urgent to assess the possible impact of these changes on extreme high flows in particular, and evaluate the uncertainties related to these projections. This paper aims to assess the changes in extreme runoff for the 100-year return level across Great Britain. It is based on the Future Flow database and analyses daily runoff over 1961–2098. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution function is automatically fitted over the baseline and the 2080s for 281 gauging stations. The analysis evaluates the uncertainty related to the GEV, and to the climate model parameterization. Then it assesses return levels with combined uncertainties. Results show that the west coast of the whole country presents the lowest climate model and probabilistic distribution uncertainties. The climate model parameterization provides greater uncertainty than the GEV distribution function.
Year: 2016