Author(s): J. P. Aguilar Lopez; J. J. Warmink; R. M. J Schielen; S. J. M. H Hulscher
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Flood defence; Failure; Piping; Correlation; Copul
Abstract: Flood defences of particularly riverine deltaic areas are mainly composed of soil embankments artificially made. As any kind of structure, the materials, geometry and possible loads, might experience different deterioration processes that will compromise the stability of the structure. In order to estimate the probability of failure of such structures due to these processes, reliability theory is commonly used. The models in this kind of practice are equations that describe the state of failure of the structure. In this study, the possible correlation of parameters used in the limit state equations is going to be studied. Particularly for the failure process also known as backward erosion piping. To do that, bivariate correlation models known as “Copulas” where used to understand the effect of correlation in the failure probability estimation of a flood defence. The results show that the actual methodology where parameter correlation inside one single cross section is neglected might result in conservative estimation of the actual failure probabilities.
Year: 2014