Author(s): Rebekka Kopmann; Thomas Brudy-Zippelius
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: No Keywords
Abstract: Reliability analysis was used as an effective method to calculate the uncertainties in the results of a twodimensional morphodynamic numerical model of river Rhine. For a 60 km long stretch from Iffezheim to Speyer a historical hydrograph of 10 years was simulated to calibrate the model, including artificial bed load supply and dredging activities. ThesimulationpackageofTelemac (www. opentelemac. org) was used with the modules Telemac2D, Sisyphe and Dredge Sim. Such long term simulations incorporate a large scope of natural and numerical uncertainties. Three different reliability methods were used to calculate the sensitivity of the numerical results according to variances in 9 input parameters. The reliability analysis presents confidence intervals of the results based on the calculated sensitivities with a given probability for every point in time and space. For the Iffezheim-Speyer model the most sensitive parameters were found and their effect on the bottom evolution was quantified. From this the simulation results can be divided into zones with different levels of uncertainty in time and space.
Year: 2012