Author(s): P. Dong; H. Chen
Linked Author(s): Hongyun Chen
Keywords: Shoreline recession; Probability method; Risk function; Wave distribution; Long-term evolution
Abstract: A method for predicting long-term shoreline erosion probabilities due to the combined effect of the longshore and cross-shore sediment transports is described. The physical basis for this method is that the dynamical response of a shoreline over time can be considered as a time-dependent stochastic system. The behaviour of the system depends on the sediment transports in both longshore and cross-shore directions. The longshore transport which causes gradual changes in the mean shoreline position was treated as a time-dependent process while the equilibrium beach profile changes due to the cross-shore transport were considered as random fluctuations about the long-term mean profile. Under this theoretical framework, shoreline changes at any time can be determined in terms of statistical distributions. Various statistical properties of the shoreline erosion can be calculated from the predicted erosion probability. An idealised shoreline configuration is used to illustrate the method.
Year: 1999