Author(s): Ziwu Fan; Ming Zhang; Jingxiu Wu
Linked Author(s): Ziwu Fan
Keywords: Flood forecasting error; P-Norm distribution; Analytic fitting method
Abstract: The error of flood forecasting in reservoirs, as we all know, tends to be inevitable. In order to make out the probability distribution characteristics of error in flood forecasting, we have totally discussed the feasibility of P-Norm distribution in flood forecasting error analysis, utilized analytic fitting methods, and finally presented the computational formula of probability density function in P-Norm distribution. Thus, we elaborate the computational process about the parameters in P-Norm distribution with proper cases, and test relative models, mean values as well as variances. Based on the analysis of forecast error in precipitation and runoff together with peak discharge belonging to 17 reservoirs in Yishusi river basin, we can safely draw the conclusions as following: First, flood forecasting error may not accord with normal distribution accurately; Second, P-Norm distribution would represent characteristics of flood forecasting error distribution; Third, parameters of P-Norm distribution, to some extent, may be in relation to forecasting level, namely the pass rate.
Year: 2013