Author(s): Elsener Metz Juerg; Huang Yan; Schneider Annemarie; Holthausen Niels; Willi Christian; Zahner Philippe; Wang Liyan; Hess Josef
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Flood risk management; Integrated risk management; Climate change adaptation; Socio-economic and demographic development; Water resources management; Changjiang; Hanjiang; Jinsha river basin; Hydrological model; GCM based projections; RiskPlan; Sino-Swiss Cooperation
Abstract: China and its growing population and emerging economy are severely affected by changing climate patterns. The water management sector is traditionally of highest importance for the Chinese society and economy – and at the same time heavily struck by droughts and flooding. Infrastructure including flood protection measures usually have a long lifespan (e. g. 50 years and more) and consequently will be subject to changing risks in future. Integrated Flood Management as a process is promoting an integrated approach to water resources management, and RiskPlan is a planning tool, which allows the integrative risk management approach to be implemented easier. Furthermore, it is able to ascertain the effectiveness of protection measures and evaluate the cost-effectiveness of such measures in a systematical, visual and scientific way. RiskPlan was applied in Dujiatai detention basin, lower area of the Hanjiang basin together with CWRC flood management experts. Due to the emerging importance of including climate change considerations in water resources management, CWRC analyzed the climate change projections for 2001-2100 by developing and using a statistical hydrological model as well as projections based on different emission scenarios of the Global Climate Models (GCMs). The hydrological model showed that there is an increasing tendency of temperature and precipitation intensity at basin scale. The GCM projections indicated that the temperature in Changjiang basin is predicted to keep on increasing over the future 100 years. Precipitation in Changjiang basin will decrease before the year 2020, then intends to increase during the period of 2020-2040 and continues to increase more significantly till 2100. More attention is needed on water resources management measures especially water supply in the dry season and drought management in general for 2-3 decades in Changjiang basin. 1 Based on a Chinese-Swiss cooperation agreement in the field of water resources management, the Swiss approach on adapting to climate change shall be introduced in the upper Changjiang basin – Jinsha river catchment. This Swiss approach will consider climate change as well as socio-economic and demographic development scenarios. Those possible developments will be included in a next application of the IT tool RiskPlan. The application of the Swiss approach will consider different sectors and hazards.
Year: 2013