Author(s): Joyce Bello; Javier Aparicio; Polioptro Martinez
Linked Author(s): Polioptro F. Martínez Austria
Keywords: Climate change; Design Discharges; Earth Model; Mexico basins
Abstract: Waterworks are designed using probability distribution functions accepting the hypothesis that climatic and hydrological variables are stationary, meaning that their statistical properties are constant over time. However, climate change is manifested in the increase in air temperature, rising ocean levels and other physical changes which significantly modify the hydrological cycle and thus statistical properties of hydrological variables. This paper aims to analyze the effects of climate change in the probability distribution functions in two basins in Mexico, through rainfall projections produced by the Earth Model, developed by the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency whose horizontal resolution is equivalent to about 20 km, one of the more detailed resolutions in the models approved by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This model provides precipitation scenarios for three periods: present (1979-2003), near future (2015-2039) and end of the century (2075-2099). Using registered runoff in both basins, unit hydrographs were obtained for each Average Infiltration Index
Year: 2013