Author(s): Hongcheng Huang; Cuiping Kuang; Jie Gu; Wei Chen; Xiaodan Mao
Linked Author(s): Cuiping Kuang
Keywords: Numerical Simulation; M2 tidal constituent; Sea Level Rise; China Se
Abstract: Concerning is growing around the world with respect to the global climate change and the related issue of accelerated sea level rise (SLR). Statistics from IPCC indicate that the global average SLR rate is 1. 8 mm/a over 1961 to 2003, and Sea Level Bulletin of China shows that the average rise rate since 1980 is 2. 5 mm/a till 2003, thereafter 2. 7 mm/a till 2011, which come to a result that China sea level rises more quickly than the global level and meanwhile presents an accelerating rising trend during recent years. Therefore, more attention should be paid to the impact of SLR in order to prevent more disasters from happening. This paper principally focuses on prediction of the change of M2 tidal constituent due to SLR in the China Sea using a 2D tidal model based on MIKE 21. The 2D tidal model is established primarily and validated by the observed tidal data under present sea level condition. Then this validated 2D tidal model is employed to predict three SLR scenarios, i. e. 0. 5, 1 and 2 m SLR respectively. The changes of tidal characteristics caused by different SLR scenarios are analyzed through the spatially distribution of the tidal amplitudes, phases and the amphidromic points shown in the co-tidal charts. Finally, the comparisons between present sea level and three SLR scenarios indicate that the more sea level rises, the more changes in tidal amplitude, tidal phase and the migration of amphidromic points, even the changes increase doubly with the diploid rise of sea level in the shallow sea and coastal areas.
Year: 2013