Author(s): Jijie Chen; Liping Wang; Anna Xu; Bikui Zhao
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Flood forecasting; Distributed Hydrological Model; Hanglongtan Reservoir; HEC-HMS Model; GIS
Abstract: With the development of microelectronics technology, GIS and remote sensing technology and further study of the theory of flood, the distributed watershed hydrological model has been widely used and applied on the basis of the natural physical mechanism. The Hydrologic Engineering Center ’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model of this study is a kind of distributed hydrological model. Combined with GIS technology, HEC-HMS model was used in this paper to carry out the short-term flood forecast in Huanglongtan reservoir. Parameters calibration and validation were carried out by using the observation data of inbound flood in the 1974-1982 and 1983-1989 years respectively. And the Nash coefficient and correlation coefficient of evaluation index were used to evaluate the simulation results of the model. According to the validation results, the average value of Nash coefficient (Ens) and correlation coefficient (R2) during the flood events in the period of calibration and validation are greater than 0. 7 and 0. 8 respectively. It shows that the fitting degree of this forecast method is high, and the qualified rate of peak value and indicators of peak time is high. Therefore, the distributed hydrological model in the study area has strong applicability and the prediction precision is high. And the affection of rainfall, parameters, the condition of underlying surface structure and the spatial variation of the model to the process of the runoff formation can be shown in this paper objectively. The method used in this paper represents the development trend of flood forecasting in the future.
Year: 2013