Author(s): Gregory Shahane De Costa; Bithin Datta; Mark Porter; Toshiharu Kojiri; Toshio Hamaguchi
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Keywords: Salinity intrusion; Ground water management
Abstract: With the increase in incidence of salinity intrusion and quality degradation of coastal aquifers together with sparse data of ground water systems in many a locations there is a need for greater functionality, and, integrating water management issues and coping strategies, in order to facilitate efficient and effective water resources management decisionmaking. There is a need for a mechanism to reason about probabilistic data related to ground water, based on rigorous analysis of known aquifer data, in away that balances the efficiency and effectiveness of Water Management strategies ensuring that uncertainty is logically taken into account. By performing scenario analysis encompassing a multitude of parameters, coupled with a decision tree model and developing a data warehouse it would be possible to viably develop Management strategies even for aquifers where data is sparse or unavailable. This paper presents the cases of regional salinity intrusion situation, and conceptualizes the process and technologies using scenario analysis coupled with a probabilistic decision tree model in order to increase the effectiveness of decision making within an uncertain data input environment. The scenario analysis is based on convective salinity behavior (i. e. Prespecified salinity patterns based on known environmental conditions) and / or probabilistic forecasts.
Year: 2007