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Statistical Modeling of Dams Based on Order Service Processes and Potential Events of Failure

Author(s): Mariana Maradjieva

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Keywords: Dam structure; Radial gate; Failure; Model prototype; Similarity; Order service; Statistics; Intake device; Settling basin; Aging service process; Serviceability

Abstract: The safety operation of dam structures is a subject of complex characteristics of the flow which requires a suitable decision to be taken. Here the problem is examined by modeling the statistical evaluation and physical research. In practice many important structures such as spillways, energy dissipaters, intakes, gates, overflow are examined in detail. However failure events have not been included yet in the engineering assessments due to lack of data or lack of adequate information. In this paper three depending on the time processes of failure are considered during the operation time of radial gates. The description and analysis of potential events of failure include the following time-varying statistical processes: non-aging processes as Poisson and Erlang systems and aging processes. The inter arrival time and duration of failure are highly variable and depend not only on specific operation of the gates but affect hydraulics, hydrological and environmental characteristics of the dam structures. Some important parameters are calculated and evaluated by the model prototype and the hydraulic similarity in a laboratory. As a result the scale coefficients for linearity, velocity, pressure, discharge, time and force are obtained. Statistical tests are applied to choose the best distribution function at a given number of failure events.

DOI:

Year: 2007

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