Author(s): Toshiharu Kojiri; Tomoharu Hori; Junpei Nakatsuka; Teng-Sheng Chong
Linked Author(s): Tomoharu Hori
Keywords: Continental Model; System dynamics; Trade and migration; GCM
Abstract: This research assesses the severity of future water scarcity and its impact on the growth of human civilization through System Dynamics modeling of the world at regional level. Six sectors of activities are modeled in each continent to represent the human society. Continental interactions such as migration and trade are also modeled to express the synergy of activities among the various continents. Results of the model simulations from 1960 to 2100 show that water scarcity, unlike other limitations such as nonrenewable resources and persistent pollution, gives severe, detrimental problems within short delays after its occurrence.
Year: 2005