Author(s): Edilberto Guevara
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Flow anomalies; Effect of El Nino; Influence of ENSO; CaroniRiver flow series; Effects of tele-connections; Caronibasin
Abstract: This paper deals with the study of the relationship between ENSO Indices and the flow anomalies of Caroni River, using the monthly mean flows observed at Guri Gauging Station during the period of 1950-2003. Caroni basin has 90 % of the hydroelectric capacity and 64% of the country total annual energy production. Flow anomalies were correlated with 12 ENSO- Indices. The best correlation is showed by the Index ENSO 3/4, meaning that the join occurrence of atmospheric and oceanic events exercise the biggest influence on the ocurrence of flow anomalies. High east velocities of QBO, result in higher positive flow anomalies than those corresponding to west velocities. The conclusion is that during the cold El Nino period in the Pacific (La Nina) the flows in Caroni river diminish affecting the storage and level of operation of Guri reservoir and the production of hydroelectrical energy. In fact, 12 from the 15 El Nino event years that happened during the analyzed period of flows coincide with years which mean annual flow is far smaller than the historical mean. A knowledge of this fact should help authorities to make better decissions on the operation of the National Interconected Electrical Sytem (SIN) when an episode La Nina (AENSO) is foreseen.
Year: 2005