Author(s): Nasreen Jahan; M. Ali Bhuiyan; A. T. M. Hasan Zobeyer
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Surma River; Sea surface temperature; Flood forecast; Teleconnection; Forecasting index
Abstract: Growth in population and extensive encroachment of floodplains in the recent years have changed the flood risk in Bangladesh and made the country more vulnerable to major losses during large floods. Large investments to build physical infrastructure against flood protection stand as a witness to the desperate efforts by man to control this natural variability of water resources. Due to failure of Structural measures, the choice of non-structural measures in this country is becoming popular and flood forecasting is one of those effective options. This research intends to identify the nature and strength of possible teleconnection between the Surma River flow and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and to develop a model which can capture, at least in part, the natural variability of flow, as well as to provide a large forecasting lead time. A key advantage of this model is that it does not require rainfall and Stream flow information from upstream areas and countries. It only needs SST forecast data, previous years’ stream flows and corresponding SST records. In order to easily judge the forecast skill, a synoptic parameter, the Forecasting Index (FI) has also been used. This long lead forecast model will provide sufficient time for flood preparedness and flood protection and such seasonal forecasts are invaluable to the management of land and water resources, particularly in Bangladesh, where floods can be more severe and water resources system yields are smaller than most parts of the world.
Year: 2005