Author(s): Korinus N. Waimbo; Gan Savic; Fayyaz A. Memon
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Water-food-energy system; Human development index; System dynamics model
Abstract: Water, food, and energy are basic needs crucial to human survival but also pervade many aspects of human development. Systemically, they are vastly interdependent. A system dynamics model comprises five modules, namely water, food, energy, demographic, and human development, is being constructed. The aim is to evaluate the dynamics behavior of water, food, and energy systems and their linkages to human development on national scale. The model was simulated on yearly basis from the year 1990 to 2015. It was then tested against national historical data of Indonesia. Analysis of error using mean-square error, root mean square percent error, and Theil inequality statistics were performed to test model behavior. Preliminary results show that most of the variables like total population, income per capita, human development index, and sectoral water demands have root mean square percent error below 10% that indicate the model produces similar behavior to the actual system. As part of the future work, once the model is fully constructed, it will be applied to assess the impact of a range of policy scenarios and implications on the water, food, and energy sectors and human development in Indonesia.
Year: 2018