Author(s): Damian Staszek; Gan Savic; Guangtao Fu

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Keywords: Decision making methods; Headroom; Regulation; Water Resources Management Plan

Abstract: Water companies in England and Wales use a range of decision making methods (DMMs) for water resources planning. The aim of this paper is to provide a critical review of the DMMs employed by water companies in relation to their 2014 Water Resources Management Plan (WRMP) submissions; as compared with those used for the current round of draft 2019 WRMP submissions. Most companies use a similar suite of models to assess their supply-demand situation. For previous submissions, target headroom approach was the preferred method for representing the uncertainty in water resources planning. For the recent round of draft WRMP submissions, some companies have decided to investigate more advanced DMMs, and to choose risk-based methods in order to select their preferred investment scenarios. Bristol Water, Severn Trent Water, Southern Water and Thames Water have still chosen the Economics of Balancing Supply Demand (EBSD) method for selecting their optimal investment programmes; but Thames Water have decided to progress to simulation methods (Multi Criteria Search) for optimal investment selection where zones with more complex supply demand problems are concerned. Only Thames Water decided to use a multiple linear regression model for household consumption forecast, the remaining companies used micro-component analysis for this purpose.

DOI:

Year: 2018