Author(s): Luis M. Barranco; ngela Potenciano; Francisco Olivera; Javier Alvarez-Rodriguez

Linked Author(s):

Keywords: Climate change; Downscaled simulations; Extreme events; High precipitation; Spain

Abstract: The potential impact of several downscaled climate simulations (DCS) on high precipitation in Spain during the twenty-first century has been investigated. Two types of precipitation time series, derived from DCS, were used: annual maximum daily precipitation (AMDP) and high precipitation index (R95 T). Statistical tests were applied to detect significant trends (Mann-Kendall test), changes in median (Wilcoxon test), and changes in variance (Fligner-Killeen test), as well as the regional significance of these changes (Binomial test). Furthermore, the SQRT-et-max distribution was adjusted to quantify changes in the AMDP frequency. In general, no clear trends or changes in median, variability or frequency were detected in the AMDP series. R95 T series, though, showed some signs of positive trends and median increments. Thus, a lack of clear patterns of change in high precipitation events may be concluded. Finally, two sources of uncertainty are worth highlighting: the bias of the DCS values when compared with observed data, and the variability among the different DCS results.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2017.1280815

Year: 2017