Author(s): Spyros Beltaos
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Keywords: No Keywords
Abstract: River ice jams can cause extreme flood events with major socio-economic impacts. A major practical question is how to quantify and assess ice-jam flood risk. Ideally, this question can be answered by gathering, interpreting, and analyzing historical data on annual ice-influenced peak water levels. More commonly, however, the available historical information is scarce; it is then necessary to predict the water levels that may be caused by an ice jam and to determine associated frequencies. The main objectives of this article are to review present capabilities to answer such questions and to identify limitations and knowledge gaps. Starting with a brief description of the various types of ice jams, those types that have high potential for flooding are identified. Tools for predicting the water levels of such jams range from simple analytical approaches to numerical models that can simulate one- and twodimensional processes, both steady-state and dynamic. In most instances, the location and extent of the jam must be defined by the user, owing to very limited capability to predict where ice jams will occur on any given ice season. In turn, this limitation makes it difficult to determine the frequency of ice jam occurrence, which is a key element in developing stagefrequency relationships for ice jams. In practice, this task is accomplished by a combination of empirical, site-specific information and a good understanding of ice jam processes. To date, there has been little corroboration of such approaches, and research is needed to validate or modify them.
Year: 2010