Author(s): X. Ma; T. Yasunari; Y. Fukushima
Linked Author(s): Xin MA
Keywords: No Keywords
Abstract: In order to determine the cause of flooding, this study analyzed meteorological data and modeled ice breakup dates. The data were for 16 years: 9 years (from 1986 to 1994) from the GAME-Siberia Committee and 7 years (after 1994) from NOAA/NCDC. The GAME-Siberia Committee has river ice data for the Lena River basin for October to May in ten-day sets from 1986 to 1988. This study used a simple accumulated degree-day method to estimate river ice breakup dates in cold regions. We previously applied the method to the Lena River basin for 1986–1987 and showed that the breakup dates of 43 river sections in the basin could be modeled. Here, four sections (Yakutsk, Olekminsk, Vitim and Kirensk) of the Lena River were selected and a long-term simulation of breakup dates and river ice thickness was carried out. The results showed that 1) the river breakup dates and changes in ice thickness could be modeled; 2) over the previous 16 years, the difference between the breakup date upstream (Kirensk) and that midstream (Yakutsk) ranged from several to 69 days.
Year: 2002