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Sensitivity of Great Slave Lake Ice Phenology to Climate Change

Author(s): Patrick Menard; Claude R. Duguay; Frederique C. Pivot; Greg M. Flato; Wayne R. Rouse

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Abstract: A 1-D thermodynamic lake ice model (Canadian Lake Ice Model or CLIMo) is used to evaluate the response of the ice phenology of Great Slave Lake, Northwest Territories, Canada, to climate change. The input data consist of mean air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, cloud amount and snow on the ground. The model output parameters generated by CLIMo include ice thickness (snow ice and black ice) and onice snow depth on a daily basis. The model also produces annual freeze-up and break-up dates. Daily climatic normals, derived from meteorological observations (1960–1991) obtained at the Yellowknife Airport weather station, were used to simulate ice normals and then modified in order to reproduce climate changes. Thus, air temperature and snow on the ground were either increased or decreased from the normals. Results show the great sensitivity of ice cover duration to air temperature. Solid precipitation also plays a significant role in the evolution of a lake ice cover. Thus, a change in the amount of snowfall has a strong impact on ice thickness.

DOI:

Year: 2002

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