Author(s): Blair Fitzharris; Terry Prowse

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Abstract: This paper reviews the main findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) from its Third Assessment Report in 2001 regarding trends in sea ice and the possible impacts of projected global warming. Twentieth century data for the Arctic shows notable warming and reductions in sea ice in many regions. The data from the Antarctic is more equivocal, with little trend in the area of sea ice during the satellite era, but it may have decreased since the 1950s. By 2100, climate change in the Arctic is expected to greatly reduce sea ice, especially in summer. Estimates vary, depending on the model used, but there could be a loss of up to 60–80% of the present extent, with a doubling of the ice free season. There will be consequent major physical, ecological, and economic impacts. Impacts on indigenous communities could threaten long standing traditions and ways of life, but there will be improved opportunities for shipping arising from a less ice-infested Arctic Ocean. Sea ice changes about the Antarctic are expected to less marked and slower, with the area shrinking by about 2 degrees of latitude. Affects here will be mainly on the marine biology of the Southern Ocean.

DOI:

Year: 2002