Author(s): B. Radivojevic; A. Ilic; D. Radivojevic; M. Gocic

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Abstract: At the beginning of the new century in Serbia there were three dry years, 2000,2003 and 2012, with extremely high temperatures and long dry periods. Taking into account complete damage caused by droughts those years, consequently agriculture in Serbia is still affected. On the other hand, frequent and heavy rainfall periods were recorded at the first half of 2010,2014 and 2016. The damage estimated in 2014 was EUR 2 billion and contributed not only into the lesser annual income, but also in lower grain yield in the later period. The main purpose of the analyses presented in the paper is to create a rational basis for technical, technological and other measures to mitigate the negative effects of the obvious changes in the climate system. For the purpose of adopting the most appropriate methodology, four river basins were selected on the territory of Serbia with long-term measurements of the main water balance elements. The regional climate model (RCM) EBU-POM was used for meteorological parameters determination. The outcomes of mathematical model VNC presented in the paper are projections of hydrological regime in the upcoming period till the end of 21th century. Research purpose is to define guidelines in line with the strategy of sustainable development, according to the current floods and storms, as well as those that would occur in a changing climate conditions.

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Year: 2022