Author(s): Veronica Minaya; Evelyn Guevara; Tommy Proano

Linked Author(s): Veronica Minaya

Keywords: WEAP; Hydrological modelling; Climate change; Hydropower generation; Ecuador

Abstract: In the last decade, drastic changes have been observed in the variability of the global hydrological regime as a result of climate change. These variations affect the quantity and variability of the resource in the main river basins, having a negative impact on the sustainable use of the resource to meet certain demands (water supply for consumption, irrigation, hydroelectricity). Thus, there is a great need for the use of hydrological models for a better estimation of future flows under climate change scenarios that will allow better water management and planning in river basins. This type of study is also essential for the design, implementation and maintenance of civil works for different purposes. In the region, there are very few infrastructure designs for hydroelectric development that have considered climate change scenarios, mainly due to the lack of a robust set of hydrological data. As a result, these infrastructures have suffered significant damage caused by unexpected flood events that cause the operations shutdown to avoid damage in the mechanical components. On the other hand, during dry season, low water availability reduces energy production resulting in significant monetary losses. The study aims to estimate future flows in the Alambi catchment (Ecuador), located in the northwestern part of the country, which drains to the Amazon River basin. The WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning System) hydrological modeling tool was used to determine the water variability and distribution to cover the different demands in the catchment considering climate change scenarios. For the climate change analysis, climate projections of precipitation and temperature from Armenta et al. (2019) were used. The hydrometeorological information considers the available stations in the area of influence. However, due to the deficiency of hydrometeorological information, satellite information and the transfer of flows from a nearby basin with proven hydraulic similarity were also required. The time series for modeling was determined based on the available flow, precipitation and temperature data. Model calibration and validation showed acceptable performance. Preliminary results showed that the flows will have a wider range of variation implying to a flow deficit during the summer and an excess during the rainy season.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/IAHR-39WC252171192022822

Year: 2022