Author(s): Sabah Almahrouqi

Linked Author(s): SABAH Almahrouqi

Keywords: Climate change; MENA region; Extreme precipitation; Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) curves

Abstract: Climate change is one of the biggest challenges facing Middle East and North Africa (MENA) due to arid environmental conditions and poor management. Moreover, MENA countries represent different climatic, hydrological, storms characteristics and observational capacities which increase the ambiguity and the real consequences of climate change over different parts of the region. One of the most noticeable change recently is the increase frequency of extreme precipitation events and thus the increase of flash flood events. The importance of this analysis is that it provides the analysis of the change in the precipitation trend and the extreme events and generate the updated IDF curves which are used in the designs of flood mitigation structures. The development of the updated IDF curves under different future scenarios are extremely significant for the area to improve the responsiveness to the potential impacts of climate change and for better mitigation strategy. Since the region lacks precipitation data, which is the basis for climate change impacts analysis, various satellite data such as CRU TS 4.04 (Climate research Unit) and GPCC (Global Precipitation Climatology Centre) were used to analyze the change in the historical precipitation over the region using Man-Kendal test. Statistical downscaling (delta method) computed to produce the future precipitation from CIMP6 model datasets. The results showed some increasing trend in the extreme precipitation over Oman, Sudan, Yemen and Somalia. The IDF curves for all countries have shown an increase in the precipitation intensity over different duration and return periods under SSP5 scenario. The highest and most significant increase were for Iran, Sudan, Somalia, Morocco, and Oman. These results reflect the fact that this region is affected by climate changes, which confirms the need for further studies and analysis, in a wider and more intensive way, including other factors like topography, local climate, locations that may hold some different impacts on the small scale.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/IAHR-39WC2521711920221240

Year: 2022