Author(s): Rajib Maity; Riya Dutta

Linked Author(s): Rajib Maity, Riya Dutta

Keywords: Temporal networks; Agricultural Droughts; Climate change; Future Assessment

Abstract: As the climate is changing and so is the inter-relationships between associated variables, a time-varying concept is inevitable in hydroclimatic modelling. In this study, we considered time-varying relationship between hydroclimatic forcings and multi-dimensional characteristics of drought, a well-known but least understood extreme phenomena. Duration, severity and frequencies of basin-scale agricultural drought are changing over time and we attempt to capture such changes through a time-varying modelling framework, namely temporal networks. The network structures provide a detailed dependence structure between the hydroclimatic forcings and the drought characteristics. Furthermore, owing to its time-varying characteristics, the temporal networks based modelling schemes are useful to deal with non-stationarity in the relationship between drought characteristics and meteorological forcings. The temporal networks based approaches are able to model the time-varying characteristics between hydroclimatic forcings and different characteristics of basin-scale meteorological droughts. Having established the relationship, we assess the future status of basin-scale agricultural droughts (in terms of its aforementioned characteristics) under different climate change scenarios. Findings of the study are helpful for water management and policies for sustainable future.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/IAHR-39WC2521711920221373

Year: 2022