Author(s): Alberto Fernandez-Perez; Javier L. Lara; David Lucio; Inigo J. Losada

Linked Author(s): David Lucio

Keywords: Adaptation Planning; Risk assessment; Probabilistic analysis; Regional ports; Climate variability

Abstract:

Regional ports are essential in the development of local communities, being a key source of income and economic activities of coastal regions. Due to the necessity of maintenance, repairs, and upgrades, they are also the target of great investments of local governments. This necessity arises from the high exposure of these ports to climate-related hazards given their location in coastal zones. In addition, climate change trends will condition the variation of those hazards, including a high degree of uncertainty in their evolution in the upcoming years, which encourages including probabilistic high-resolution analysis of the evolution of these hazards. Hence, it is proposed a holistic risk analysis that considers the impact of diverse climate-related hazards in the port area, and their affection to port infrastructure, elements and economic activities, considering not only actual impacts, but how they will evolve in the future due to climate variability and assessing their related economic consequences. This analysis allows not only focusing on the main shortcomings (in terms of reliability, functionality and operability) a given port may experience, but also to develop a consistent port planning that minimizes climate-related impacts now and in the future, comparing the economic benefits of risk reduction with economic costs of adaptation at different points of port’s lifespan. Thus, a robust tool for port planners and decision-makers is developed in order to provide economical and technical solidity to regional ports and ensure resilience against climate change. The methodology described here was applied to a specific case study on a regional port located in the Cantabrian Sea.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/IAHR-39WC252171192022916

Year: 2022