Author(s): Enrique Soriano; Andrea Petroselli; Davide Luciano De Luca; Ciro Apollonio; Salvatore Grimaldi; Luis Mediero
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Abstract: Design floods are usually estimated with statistical analyses of observed data. However, time series of observations are usually short. Moreover, dams require assessment of design floods for high return periods, which estimates have high uncertainties. In addition, climate change is expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of floods in the future. A stochastic methodology to assess hydrological dam safety considering climate change is presented. The methodology is applied to the Eugui Dam (Spain). The stochastic model STORAGE is used to simulate time series of precipitation. Precipitation projections supplied by 12 climate models in three periods and two emission scenarios are used to consider climate change in the STORAGE model. Precipitation time series generated stochastically by STORAGE are transformed into runoff time series by using the continuous COSMO4SUB hydrological model. It provides continuous runoff time series as output from which annual maximum inflow hydrographs to the Eugui reservoir can be extracted. The Volume Evaluation Method is applied to simulate the operation of spillway gates, obtaining maximum reservoir water levels and outflow hydrographs. Therefore, the methodology proposed allows practitioners and dam owners to check hydrological dam safety requirements detailed in the regulations, accounting for climate change.
Year: 2022