Author(s): Evangelos Findanis; Athanasios Loukas

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Keywords: No Keywords

Abstract: In the present paper, concepts of the Theory of Information, developed by Claude Shannon (Shannon, 1948), are applied to estimate and detangle components of hydrological uncertainty. The difference between the information contained in observed and simulated time series of runoff is considered as the total hydrological uncertainty because uncertainty is the gap between available and required knowledge. This approach is more intuitive than the traditional treatment of uncertainty as confidence intervals. Moreover, a theoretical framework is developed, in which the components of total uncertainty are explicitly defined and a novel method of splitting epistemic uncertainty into structural and parametric is being applied. In the benchmark article titled “Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH) – A community perspective” (Bloschl et al., 2019), it is noted that disentangling and reducing the model uncertainty into its components is considered one of the unsolved problems in hydrology and a challenge of modern hydrology.

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Year: 2022