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Operational Oil Spill Modeling Forced by Real-Time Met-Ocean Forecasts: A Hypothetical Scenario for the North Aegean Sea

Author(s): Panagiota Keramea; Nikolaos Kokkos; Spyridon Ntougias; Paraschos Melidis; Dionissis Latinopoulos; Christos Akratos; Ifigenia Kagalou; Georgios Sylaios

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Abstract: Oil spills of any size have severe environmental, social, and economical consequences becoming a major hazard to world oceanic health in recent decades. The rise in global oil and gas demand, as well as the corresponding expansion in oil and gas production, particularly from coastal and offshore marine reserves, has greatly raised the potential of inadvertent oil leakage into the sea. In this work, we simulate a hypothetical accidental oil leak release in the North Aegean Sea, in the vicinity of the Dardanelles Strait, the main tanker route connecting the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. The hydrodynamics of the area have been described by Kokkos and Sylaios (2016). An operational oil spill model was used to assess the oil dispersive qualities and disclose the relative magnitude of weathering processes. The OpenOil transport and fate numerical model was used to run numerical simulations. Oil entrainment, vertical mixing, oil resurfacing, and oil emulsification are all part of this study, which combines algorithms with physical processes. The oil dispersion model was coupled to NOAA-GFS and CMEMS real-time met-ocean forecasts. Results focused on the description of oil droplets’ movement due to the wind/water circulation, but also on the distribution of oil mass balance and oil mass characteristics, such as oil patchiness.

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Year: 2022

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