Author(s): Nikos Mellios; Jannicke Moe; Chrysi Laspidou
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Keywords: No Keywords
Abstract: In this work, we model the response of cyanobacteria abundance to variations in lake Total Phosphorus (TP) and Total Nitrogen (TN) concentrations, using a data set from 822 Northern European lakes. We divide lakes in 10 groups based on their physico-chemical characteristics, following a modified lake typology defined for the Water Framework Directive (WFD). This classification is used in a Bayesian hierarchical linear model which employs a probabilistic approach, transforming uncertainty into probability thresholds. The hierarchical model is used to calculate probabilities of cyanobacterial concentrations exceeding risk levels for human health associated with the use of lakes for recreational activities, as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO). Different TN and TP concentration combinations result in variable probabilities to exceed pre-set thresholds. Our objective is to support lake managers in estimating acceptable nutrient concentrations and allow them to identify actions that would achieve compliance of cyanobacterial abundance risk levels with a given confidence level.
Year: 2022