Author(s): Tomohiro Yasuda; Hajime Mase; Rie Takada; Soo Youl Kim; Nobuhito Mori; Yuichiro Oku
Linked Author(s): Hajime Mase
Keywords: No Keywords
Abstract: The effects of global warming are indisputable for an increase of natural disasters. In Japan, the innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century has started since 2007 aiming to contribute to the IPCC fifth assessment report. Tropical cyclones (typhoons) are one of phenomena affected strongly by global warming. Extreme events of typhoon will make high storm surges and waves and have the potential to flood over low lying coastal areas. Therefore, it is important to consider the change of typhoon characteristics from present to future. By taking such characteristics into account, a stochastic typhoon model is established and probabilities to attack three major bay areas in Japan are evaluated. Lastly, storm surge simulations are carried out by using a coupled prediction model of storm surge, wave and tide model and by using AGCM output's future typhoons.
Year: 2009