Author(s): Pao-Shan Yu; Shien-Tsung Chen; Chin-Yuan Lin; Ching-Ping Tung
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Abstract: This study investigated streamflow droughts under climate change scenarios in a reservoir basin in northern Taiwan. A statistical downscaling method was applied to generate future daily precipitation data from climate outputs run by five general circulation models under A1B and B1 scenarios. Then, a calibrated continuous hydrologic model was adopted to simulate future projected streamflows. This study defined the streamflow drought using the threshold level approach. Discharges with different exceedance probabilities are used as the thresholds to specify four levels of streamflow droughts. Analytic results show that generally, streamflow droughts may increase in drought duration and magnitude in the study area.
Year: 2009