Author(s): D. Nohara; H. Miki; T. Hori
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Long-term reservoir operation; Drought; Large-scale meteorological conditions; Precipitation prediction; Optimization; Dynamic programming
Abstract: A long-term reservoir operating scheme is proposed for the drought management considering large-scale meteorological conditions, which are correlated with precipitation in a target basin. In the proposed model, large-scale meteorological conditions, such as pressure height or sea surface temperatures, which are highly correlated with basin precipitation, are firstly searched by use of correlation analysis. Basin precipitation and streamflow series for the coming three months are then predicted by use of multivariable regression models. Real-time reservoir operation is conducted by daily basis considering the prediction results of precipitation and streamflow, optimizing release policy for the coming three months by DP model in which objective is minimization of drought damage in water use. Proposed reservoir operation model was applied to Sameura reservoir with the simplified Yoshino River basin, in Japan, demonstrating an improvement in the water release practices in comparison with operation without consideration of large-scale meteorological conditions.
Year: 2011