Author(s): A. Herron; D. Stephens; R. Nathan; L. Jayatilaka
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Keywords: Monte Carlo; Rainfall; Temporal; Melbourne; RORB
Abstract: ARR provides a set of design rainfall temporal patterns for use in generating design flood events. These patterns were derived to represent a pattern of “average variability” where it is hoped that their use in deterministic flood event models would ensure that the annual exceedence probability of the resulting flood is the same as the causative rainfall. Since 1987 understanding of temporal patterns and their effect on flood estimation has progressed to the development of Monte Carlo approaches to flood estimation, whereby ensembles of temporal patterns are used to represent rainfall variability. This paper describes an investigation undertaken for Melbourne Water to derive a set of probabilistic temporal patterns for the region. Gauges from 111 sites across the Melbourne area were used to produce 50 representative temporal patterns for each duration. The results show that there are significant differences between the ARR temporal patterns and the samples extracted for this investigation.
Year: 2011