Author(s): H. Miyamoto; K. Kanda; K. Michioku; J. Morioka; T. Uotani; Y. Ohchi; K. Aga
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: River management; Flood discharge; Riparian ecology; Tree dynamics; Stochastic analysis
Abstract: Vegetation overgrowth in river courses has become a serious engineering problem for riparian management in Japan. From both viewpoints of flood control and ecological restoration, it would be necessary to accurately predict the vegetation dynamics for long-term duration. In this study, we tried to develop a stochastic model for predicting the dynamics of trees with emphasis on the interaction with flood events. In the model, the flood discharge was stochastically simulated using a filtered Poisson process, one of the conventional approaches in hydrological time-series generation. The model included the effects of tree growth, loss by the flood impact, and infant tree invasion. The results of Monte Carlo simulation quantitatively indicated that a suitable equilibrium state of tree density for both flood protection and ecological conservation was achieved by a certain floodplain level in each flood discharge scale.
Year: 2011