Author(s): T. Partal; E. Kahya; D. Seker; S. Kabdasli
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Egean; Climate change; Precipitation; Trend analysis
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to determine trends in the long-term annual mean and monthly totals precipitation series by using non-parametric methods (the Mann-Kendall and Sen's T tests). The change per unit time in a time series having a linear trend was estimated by using a simple non-parametric procedure named as Sen's estimator of slope. Moreover, the correlation structure in the data was accounted for in determining the significance level of the test results of the Mann-Kendall test. The study covers a period of 65 years starting at 1929 to 1993 and includes precipitation records from 12 meteorological stations in the Aegean region of Turkey. It is concluded that trends in the annual mean precipitation of five stations are observed than are expected to occur by chance. The analysis indicates that the regional average of the annual mean precipitations has a decreasing tendency (but this was statistically significant at the 90% level). A noticeable decrease in the annual mean precipitation was founded mostly in the east part of the region. Finally, the indication for the annual means was found to be inappropriate for the monthly precipitation totals. In order to better visualize the spatial and temporal variation of precipitations in the region, ArcView desktop GIS software has been chosen to map out the data.
Year: 2003