Author(s): Oscar Mesa; German Poveda; Luis Carvajal; Jose Salazar

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Abstract: The hydro-climatology of tropical South America and Colombia is highly coupled with low-frequency large-scale oceanic and atmospheric phenomena occurring over the Pacific and the Atlantic oceans. In particular, ENSO's signal modulates climatic and hydrologic conditions on time scales ranging from seasons to decades. With some regional differences in timing and amplitude, tropical South America exhibit negative anomalies in rainfall and stream flows associated with the warm phase of ENSO (El Nino), and positive anomalies with the cold phase (La Nina). We illustrate such a dependence for the hydro-climatology of Colombia. Reservoir design and operation acquire a new dimension under long-term cycles and quasi-periodicity such as those inherent to ENSO forcing. New models to estimate reservoir reliability based on regime dependant processes or double well potential undergoing stochastic fluctuations are considered. Two regimes are used to represent the two phases of ENSO and better reproduce the long range properties of the record associated with reservoir performance.

DOI:

Year: 1997