Author(s): Bonifacio Fernandez
Linked Author(s): Bonifacio Fernandez L.
Keywords: No Keywords
Abstract: This paper develops an algorithm for estimating the risk of occurrence of events defined as a run in statistically independent time series where periodicity is important. The procedure uses the basic ideas of return period and risk, as they are defined in hydrology, in order to be applied to meteorological droughts using monthly precipitation time series as water supply. Estimation of the risk related to the occurrence of a run of several consecutive months without precipitation in the semiarid zone of Chile, in the south of the Atacama Desert, are used as examples.
Year: 1997