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Stochastic Modeling of Hydrological Droughts

Author(s): Hsieh Wen Shen; Jenq Tzong Shiau

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Abstract: The far-reaching impacts of droughts are often spread on larger areas and tend to persist over longer time. Understanding the characteristics of droughts is an essential and important component for design, planning and management of a water resources system. In this study, streamflows are under investigated and hydrological droughts are considered as the period during which streamflows below monthly median. As drought events defined by theory of runs, two important properties of droughts, distributions of drought duration and severity are fitted from data. Then, the occurrences of drought events can be modeled as the alternating renewal process. The return period of drought events is also determined based on the derived severity distribution and mean interarrival time of droughts.

DOI:

Year: 1997

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