Author(s): Anuar Md. Ali, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Dimitri P. Solomatine
Linked Author(s): Anuar Md Ali
Keywords: Design flood, GLUE, uncertainty
Abstract: Design flood profiles are regarded as important references in the flood management plan. The simulated results of flood modeling are mainly based on deterministic predictions obtained from hydrologic and hydraulic models. This approach of determining flood profiles do not account for various uncertainties that known to influence the simulated results. These uncertainties ranging from input data to modeling equation solver, as well as model parameter and GIS processing tools. In this study, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) technique is used to represent the uncertainty in model predictions through the Monte Carlo analysis. This study aims to explore and measure the differences arising from the use of deterministic and uncertainty approaches in simulation of design flood profile. The roles of flow and roughness coefficient in uncertainty analysis are explored on the model outputs of one-dimensional HEC-RAS model on Johor River, Malaysia. In general, the results of flood profiles display advantages of uncertainty in design approach are compared with the deterministic single simulation approach
Year: 2017