Author(s): Dongling Chen; Jifeng Liu; Lina Zhang

Linked Author(s):

Keywords: No Keywords

Abstract: The statistical forecast models on ice conditions in the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River are built with two methods, multiple linear regression and grey modelling, applying newly observation data, and based on analyzing river ice physical processes and its formation and deterioration mechanism. The models can make forecasts of the ice runs presence date and the first freeze-up date in the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach, and the ice runs date, freeze-up date, breakup date, the highest water level and the ice flood peak discharge during the breakup period, respectively at Shizuishan, Bayangaole, Sanhuhekou and Toudaoguai hydrological stations distributed in the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach. By validation with observation data in recent 4 years, it shows that both multiple linear regression model and GM (0, N) model are capable for forecasting the ice conditions in the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River, and the forecast pass-rate exceeds 75% with average lead-time of 8 to 20d.

DOI:

Year: 2012