Author(s): Leonore Boelee, Darren Lumbroso, Paul Samuels, Elisabeth Stephens, Hannah Cloke
Linked Author(s): Emma Brown
Keywords: Ensembles, flood forecasting, hydrological modelling, hydraulic modelling, uncertainty
Abstract: The increased availability and application of probabilistic weather forecasts in flood forecasting means that the uncertainty arising from the precipitation forecast can be assessed. This has led to a wider interest in how uncertainty is affecting flood forecast systems. In literature, there are general techniques and principles available on how to deal with uncertainty. However, there are no well-accepted guidelines on the implementation of these principles and techniques. There is neither coherent terminology nor a systematic approach, which means that it is difficult and perhaps even impossible to assess the characteristics and limitations of uncertainty quantification methods. Selecting the most appropriate method to match a specific flood forecasting system is therefore a challenge. The main findings of this review are that there is remaining mathematical and theoretical challenges in uncertainty quantification methods and that this leads to the use of assumptions which in turn could lead to a misrepresentation of the predictive uncertainty
Year: 2017