Author(s): Shaofei Zhou; Wensheng Zhu; Difan Xiao; Guifen Li

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Keywords: Ice flush; Freeze up; Break up; Ice dam

Abstract: In this paper briefly introduces the forecast of ice slush at Heilong and Songhua rivers, The estimate on thickness of ice and ice cover strength, the forecast of freeze up and break up in the river, and the ice dam flood prediction are described also. In the ice slush character date forecasting process, critical index critical date being used, so that the date of which represent the temperature rising or dropping stably on the point of zero degree can be defined. For ice flood forecasting, rainfall runoff in thaw and snow melted phase calculating theory and method are used. In the method all frozen earth hydrology factors are fully considered. For ice dam among those high fall rate mountainous rivers, the paper gives new concept and integrated calculating method to explain the forming mechanism of the ice dams. All those get satisfied result in the ice dam flood analysis for Heilong and Songhua Rivers. In the calculating for the ice thickness and ice cover strength the lasting period factor method being introduced, this improve the forecasting of long term and make it possible to forecast for those data lacking areas.

DOI:

Year: 2006