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Simulation of Probabilistic Averaging in Ice Load Estimation

Author(s): Chuanke Li; Robert Frederking; Ian Jordaan

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Keywords: Probabilistic averaging; Autoregressive model; High pressure zones; Pressure-area; Pressure-aspect ratio

Abstract: This paper mainly focuses on establishing a probabilistic model to explore the relationship between local pressures and the global pressure. Both spatial and temporal correlations among the local pressures are considered in the study. A vector autoregressive model (VAR) is applied in this research to include these correlations. The global contact area is divided into a group of local areas. The model is used to illustrate the probabilistic averaging effect from local pressure to global pressure. The duration effect in which a higher load is likely to result from a longer interaction process is also showed using this model. The model is also used to explore the pressure-area relationship and pressure-aspect ratio relationship. The results imply that using the pressure-area relationship and the pressure-aspect ratio relationship alone may not be sufficient for global load estimation.

DOI:

Year: 2006

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