Author(s): Roger Pilkington; Chris Hill; Dan Mcgillivray; Tom Agnew

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Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of a warm climate, as a result of a two times increase of atmospheric CO2 equivalent, on the ice conditions in the Beaufort Sea. Two climate models were used to predict the temperature, wind, and precipitation at 14 locations from 70° to 80° N latitude and different longitudes. These data were fed into an ice growth model, which calculated the ice growth and decay using the basic physics equations, a balance of the incoming and outgoing radiation and the information from the climate models. Data based on the current, or "Base", climate and on a warm year in a warm decade, 1989, were also used to calculate ice growth for comparison with the warming models. These models indicated a reduction in ice thickness at all locations, a receding of the polar pack over 250 km to the north, more raIpid melting of thick ice floes (Ice islands), less consolidation of first year ridges which implies thinner multi-year ridges and floes, and less extent and later formation of landfast ice.

DOI:

Year: 1992