Author(s): Donald E. Nevel
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Keywords: No Keywords
Abstract: This paper discusses several issues related to the probability of ice forces on offshore structures. The probability of ice forces involves the probability of a hit in space and time. An ice feature may simply miss the structure or may not move against the structure. The ice force is calculated from a formula whose variables may be described by a probability distribution. The three methods of Monte Carlo, enumeration or PROBAN have been used to obtain the ice force probability distribution. The assignment of probabilities to the forces in these methods depends on model of the probability of a hit from the real world. Dunwoody's model and the rain drop model for the probability of a hit are discussed. These models lead to different methods for assigning the probability to the forces. Other issues that are discussed are the rate of interaction, combining ice force distributions, probability of exceedance in a time period, and the rules, regulations and codes for offshore structures with regard to ice force probability.
Year: 1992