Author(s): V. N. Karnovich; A. G. Vasilevsky
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Keywords: No Keywords
Abstract: A method for long- and short-term forecasts of maximum ice-jam stages is discussed. The method is based on correlation and regression analysis of long-term observational data on hydrometeorological phenomena and jam-produced rises of water stages in rivers and at the limits of reservoir backwaters. The method allows for main factors and regularities of ice jamming. Numerical relationships for the forecasts are obtained with the aid of multiple correlation. The accuracy of the forecasts is fairly good. The errors do not generally exceed 5-10% of the maximum amplitude of water level fluctuations at a given river stretch. The earliness of long- and short-term forecasts is 3-4 months and up to 10 days, respectively.
Year: 1990