Author(s): Fu-Cheng Li; W. M. Sackinger; Ming-Chi Lu; M. O. Jeffries
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Keywords: No Keywords
Abstract: There are risks of ice island interaction with offshore structures or stationary vessels in the Arctic Ocean, and it is important to determine the probability of ice island trajectories in coastal areas of the Arctic Ocean. Because of the small quantity of observed data on ice island trajectories, the Monte Carlo method is used to obtain the probability of ice island trajectories. Based on movement relationships of ice islands as they are presently understood, a dynamic model of ice island movement was used in this study. With the distribution characteristics of the geostrophic wind field, a random surface wind generation approach was developed. The preliminary results of computer simulation yielded contours of different return periods (years) for ice islands in the Arctic Ocean, and show a 10-year recurrence area along the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast.
Year: 1988