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Long Term Shoreline Change and Future Forecast Due to Sea Level Rise in South Tainan Coast

Author(s): Wen-Juinn Chen, Jou-Han Wang

Linked Author(s): Wen Juinn Chen

Keywords: Sea level rise, shoreline change, coastal erosion, coastal processes.

Abstract: Taiwan now faces a serious threat of sea level rise and coastal erosion. Predicting the future shoreline position and making an erosion potential map is indispensable for formulating a coastal protection plan and implementing an integrated coastal management. In this paper, we use maps, air photos and satellite images to analyze the historical shoreline change in southern Tainan city. We also adopt an enhanced Bruun rule to compute shoreline retreat under sea level rise. The result of this study shows that more than 70% of the shorelines at Jinchen, Yuguang, Kunshen and Xipaei are stable and even in advance status. Meanwhile, shoreline at Xinan has retreated with a rate about 6. 6 m/year in recent decade. About 32. 9% of its shoreline is standing on high retreat status. Under the threat of sea level rise, it is predicted that this village would recede up to 20. 9 m in 2039. It is the most vulnerable segment of the Tainan Coast

DOI:

Year: 2017

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