Author(s): Robert J. Nicholls, Attila N. Lazar, Craig W. Hutton, Helen J. Adams, Mashfiqus Salehin, Anisul Haque, Munsur Rahman, Derek Clarke
Linked Author(s): Robert Nicholls
Keywords: Deltas, integrated assessment, delta planning, livelihoods, biophysical change
Abstract: Low and mid latitude deltas provide diverse ecosystem services and benefits for their populations. At the same time, deltas are also recognized as one of the most vulnerable coastal environments, with a range of drivers operating at multiple scales, from global climate change and sea-level rise to deltaic-scale subsidence and land cover changes, such as rice to aquaculture. These drivers threaten deltas and their ecosystem services, which often provide livelihoods for the poorest communities in these regions. The imperative to maintain ecosystem services presents a development challenge: how to develop deltaic areas in ways that are sustainable, and benefit all residents. This paper considers an integrated framework to analyze changing ecosystem services in deltas and the implications for human well-being. The focus is on the provisioning ecosystem services of agriculture, fisheries, wetlands and freshwater that directly support livelihoods. A systemic perspective is adopted to represent the principal biophysical and socio-ecological components and their interaction. A range of methods are integrated within a quantitative framework, including biophysical and socio-economic modelling and include analyses of governance through scenario development. The approach is highly iterative, with learning both within the project team and with stakeholders. The application of the methodological framework is illustrated using coastal Bangladesh, although the approach is generic and could be widely applied
Year: 2017